Oct
25th
Sat
25th
Carolina on my mind
I am calling that North Carolina will go for Obama based on the following observations.
- Dems outvoted Reps in their respective primaries by 3 to 1, signaling a greater intensity of partisan interest and voter turnout on the Dems’ part.
- Obama’s voter registration drive has added 630,000 Dems to the state party rolls, 400,000 since the primary at the end of May. Republicans added less than 100,000 new members.
- NC Presidential elections in 2000 and 2004 went Republican by roughly 400,000 votes because old school white Democrats in the state have a tendency to vote conservative Democratic in all state and local elections but Republican in the general election, this is called the ‘Bubba Bump’. Energized black Democrats are voting early in sufficient numbers (250,000 of the 830,000 voting early as at 10/24) to blunt the Bubba Bump.
- Obama has a statewide machine in full operation - 50 offices across the state. McCain has 12. Longtime Republican organizers in the state have remarked in the local media that they are impressed with the organizational skills and energy of the Obama offices in registering voters.
- Demographically, NC has been transitioning from a Red state to a Northern ‘Carpetbagger’ Liberal/Southern Center-Right state for the last decade.
